Verification parameters of HMC/MGO forecasts for EUROPE (10 - 60, 35 - 70) issued on 20221110
TRSF
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.61 | 0.37 | 4.08 | 0.48 | 0.39 | 2.02 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.55 |
week1_MGO | 0.58 | 0.24 | 2.76 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 1.66 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.80 | 0.76 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | -0.37 | 2.36 | 32.83 | -1.00 | -0.49 | 5.73 | 0.24 | 0.62 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
week2_MGO | -0.10 | 1.77 | 26.62 | -0.62 | -0.47 | 5.16 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.43 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | -0.04 | 0.54 | 7.97 | -0.46 | -0.09 | 2.82 | 0.27 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.49 |
week3_MGO | 0.23 | 0.53 | 7.81 | -0.43 | -0.48 | 2.79 | 0.66 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.44 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | -0.22 | 1.28 | 16.07 | -0.14 | -0.23 | 4.01 | 0.38 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 0.49 |
week4_MGO | -0.06 | 1.47 | 21.98 | -0.57 | -0.33 | 4.69 | 0.44 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.46 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | -0.06 | 1.00 | 5.63 | -0.53 | -0.24 | 2.37 | 0.42 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.51 |
month1_MGO | 0.36 | 0.62 | 4.61 | -0.25 | -0.09 | 2.15 | 0.73 | 0.38 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.11 | 1.15 | 5.68 | -0.19 | -0.24 | 2.38 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.50 |
month2_MGO | 0.43 | 0.62 | 4.25 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 2.06 | 0.61 | 0.53 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
month2_H&M |
T850
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.55 | 0.35 | 4.36 | 0.60 | 0.79 | 2.09 | 0.70 | 0.72 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
week1_MGO | 0.51 | 0.23 | 3.14 | 0.71 | 0.87 | 1.77 | 0.87 | 0.76 | 0.86 | 0.83 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | -0.20 | 2.94 | 38.30 | -1.67 | -0.33 | 6.19 | 0.25 | 0.61 | 0.40 | 0.42 |
week2_MGO | 0.18 | 1.51 | 18.19 | -0.27 | -0.26 | 4.27 | 0.46 | 0.58 | 0.36 | 0.46 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | -0.34 | 1.07 | 15.80 | -1.01 | -0.20 | 3.97 | 0.24 | 0.62 | 0.55 | 0.47 |
week3_MGO | 0.28 | 0.58 | 6.53 | 0.17 | -0.17 | 2.55 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.49 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | -0.34 | 0.95 | 12.21 | -0.30 | -0.35 | 3.49 | 0.28 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.45 |
week4_MGO | 0.14 | 1.01 | 14.10 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 3.75 | 0.35 | 0.66 | 0.54 | 0.52 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.10 | 0.64 | 4.15 | -0.28 | 0.23 | 2.04 | 0.63 | 0.49 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
month1_MGO | 0.60 | 0.42 | 2.55 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 1.60 | 0.54 | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.57 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | -0.10 | 0.93 | 4.15 | -0.06 | 0.31 | 2.04 | 0.73 | 0.37 | 0.48 | 0.52 |
month2_MGO | 0.54 | 0.39 | 2.10 | 0.46 | 0.29 | 1.45 | 0.42 | 0.68 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
month2_H&M |
H500
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.68 | 0.50 | 40.22 | 0.58 | 0.88 | 6.34 | 0.76 | 0.62 | 0.79 | 0.72 |
week1_MGO | 0.65 | 0.40 | 20.21 | 0.79 | 0.89 | 4.50 | 0.90 | 0.81 | 0.92 | 0.88 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | -0.11 | 1.97 | 112.98 | -0.33 | 0.22 | 10.63 | 0.33 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 0.43 |
week2_MGO | 0.33 | 0.83 | 56.74 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 7.53 | 0.83 | 0.55 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | 0.15 | 1.48 | 189.59 | -0.03 | 0.08 | 13.77 | 0.51 | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.57 |
week3_MGO | 0.23 | 1.21 | 158.38 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 12.58 | 0.66 | 0.52 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | -0.20 | 1.18 | 165.77 | -0.73 | -0.72 | 12.88 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.21 | 0.31 |
week4_MGO | 0.52 | 0.39 | 45.28 | 0.53 | 0.79 | 6.73 | 0.44 | 0.57 | 0.68 | 0.56 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.33 | 0.84 | 37.23 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 6.10 | 0.97 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.62 |
month1_MGO | 0.72 | 0.52 | 21.99 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 4.69 | 0.88 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.60 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.43 | 1.48 | 55.66 | 0.05 | -0.31 | 7.46 | 0.45 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 0.59 |
month2_MGO | 0.83 | 0.44 | 16.32 | 0.72 | 0.91 | 4.04 | 0.98 | 0.85 | 0.95 | 0.93 |
month2_H&M |
MSLP
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.58 | 0.92 | 35.77 | -0.48 | 0.82 | 5.98 | 0.77 | 0.53 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
week1_MGO | 0.51 | 0.66 | 19.04 | 0.21 | 0.73 | 4.36 | 0.86 | 0.51 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | -0.30 | 3.33 | 138.24 | -1.60 | -0.05 | 11.76 | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.48 |
week2_MGO | 0.04 | 1.69 | 67.59 | -0.27 | 0.07 | 8.22 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.49 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | 0.57 | 1.07 | 89.74 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 9.47 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
week3_MGO | -0.07 | 1.90 | 173.12 | -0.17 | 0.12 | 13.16 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.48 | 0.52 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | -0.14 | 2.33 | 184.49 | -0.18 | -0.71 | 13.58 | 0.42 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.30 |
week4_MGO | 0.64 | 1.99 | 133.14 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 11.54 | 0.91 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.23 | 1.32 | 35.61 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 5.97 | 0.55 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.45 |
month1_MGO | 0.27 | 1.12 | 38.26 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 6.19 | 0.60 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.20 | 1.65 | 44.72 | 0.11 | -0.31 | 6.69 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.53 |
month2_MGO | 0.28 | 1.38 | 36.56 | 0.27 | 0.63 | 6.05 | 0.75 | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
month2_H&M |
PREC
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.33 | 1.30 | 2.96 | -0.52 | 0.35 | 1.72 | 0.65 | 0.54 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
week1_MGO | 0.39 | 0.88 | 1.85 | 0.05 | 0.48 | 1.36 | 0.69 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | 0.14 | 3.63 | 7.20 | -0.28 | 0.16 | 2.68 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.58 |
week2_MGO | 0.21 | 2.28 | 4.92 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 2.22 | 0.65 | 0.44 | 0.63 | 0.57 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | 0.39 | 1.40 | 3.61 | 0.09 | 0.32 | 1.90 | 0.64 | 0.48 | 0.70 | 0.60 |
week3_MGO | -0.18 | 1.52 | 4.11 | -0.04 | 0.10 | 2.03 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | -0.32 | 1.08 | 2.47 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 1.57 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.43 |
week4_MGO | 0.10 | 0.84 | 2.20 | -0.04 | 0.13 | 1.48 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.56 | 0.50 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.25 | 1.41 | 1.29 | -0.03 | 0.24 | 1.13 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 0.61 | 0.57 |
month1_MGO | 0.11 | 1.24 | 1.06 | 0.15 | 0.40 | 1.03 | 0.57 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.52 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.03 | 1.37 | 0.68 | 0.04 | 0.32 | 0.82 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
month2_MGO | 0.13 | 1.40 | 0.63 | 0.11 | 0.40 | 0.79 | 0.56 | 0.47 | 0.66 | 0.56 |
month2_H&M |