Verification parameters of HMC/MGO forecasts for CNG (20 - 180, 40 - 70) issued on 20221110
TRSF
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.52 | 0.49 | 9.15 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 3.02 | 0.52 | 0.60 | 0.64 | 0.59 |
week1_MGO | 0.67 | 0.39 | 6.47 | 0.51 | 0.68 | 2.54 | 0.86 | 0.62 | 0.85 | 0.78 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | 0.02 | 1.52 | 30.46 | -0.82 | -0.34 | 5.52 | 0.41 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.44 |
week2_MGO | 0.24 | 1.24 | 18.67 | -0.11 | 0.20 | 4.32 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | 0.04 | 1.16 | 27.97 | -0.56 | -0.07 | 5.29 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.55 |
week3_MGO | 0.37 | 0.86 | 17.89 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 4.23 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | 0.04 | 1.12 | 19.05 | 0.02 | 0.35 | 4.36 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
week4_MGO | 0.06 | 1.19 | 20.80 | -0.07 | 0.21 | 4.56 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.56 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.15 | 0.88 | 8.48 | -0.88 | -0.01 | 2.91 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
month1_MGO | 0.50 | 0.55 | 3.96 | 0.12 | 0.39 | 1.99 | 0.76 | 0.61 | 0.78 | 0.71 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.17 | 1.13 | 10.45 | -0.62 | 0.07 | 3.23 | 0.59 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
month2_MGO | 0.50 | 0.75 | 5.48 | 0.15 | 0.46 | 2.34 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
month2_H&M |
T850
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.47 | 0.36 | 4.70 | 0.47 | 0.72 | 2.17 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
week1_MGO | 0.75 | 0.20 | 2.85 | 0.68 | 0.82 | 1.69 | 0.90 | 0.72 | 0.90 | 0.84 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | 0.13 | 2.09 | 31.09 | -1.10 | -0.09 | 5.58 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.50 |
week2_MGO | 0.41 | 1.03 | 13.27 | 0.10 | 0.42 | 3.64 | 0.76 | 0.63 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | -0.11 | 1.65 | 26.29 | -0.29 | -0.09 | 5.13 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.48 |
week3_MGO | 0.39 | 1.15 | 18.43 | 0.10 | 0.47 | 4.29 | 0.77 | 0.45 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | -0.30 | 1.49 | 19.49 | -0.31 | -0.33 | 4.42 | 0.35 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.42 |
week4_MGO | -0.19 | 1.39 | 19.12 | -0.28 | 0.03 | 4.37 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.56 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.18 | 0.89 | 5.45 | -0.34 | 0.14 | 2.33 | 0.55 | 0.41 | 0.55 | 0.50 |
month1_MGO | 0.55 | 0.45 | 2.93 | 0.28 | 0.62 | 1.71 | 0.79 | 0.52 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.05 | 1.20 | 7.04 | -0.10 | 0.13 | 2.65 | 0.59 | 0.45 | 0.54 | 0.53 |
month2_MGO | 0.39 | 0.86 | 4.93 | 0.23 | 0.59 | 2.22 | 0.84 | 0.53 | 0.78 | 0.72 |
month2_H&M |
H500
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.56 | 0.29 | 24.55 | 0.56 | 0.82 | 4.95 | 0.81 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.79 |
week1_MGO | 0.78 | 0.16 | 9.89 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 3.14 | 0.96 | 0.82 | 0.90 | 0.89 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | 0.23 | 1.61 | 110.92 | -0.37 | 0.34 | 10.53 | 0.68 | 0.49 | 0.63 | 0.60 |
week2_MGO | 0.58 | 0.49 | 37.49 | 0.54 | 0.75 | 6.12 | 0.86 | 0.67 | 0.89 | 0.80 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | -0.17 | 1.85 | 205.66 | -0.33 | -0.21 | 14.34 | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.39 |
week3_MGO | 0.18 | 1.28 | 125.51 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 11.20 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.64 | 0.59 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | -0.50 | 2.35 | 219.88 | -0.56 | -0.67 | 14.83 | 0.25 | 0.52 | 0.18 | 0.32 |
week4_MGO | 0.13 | 1.50 | 115.46 | 0.18 | 0.66 | 10.75 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.66 | 0.58 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.07 | 1.26 | 52.93 | -0.12 | 0.21 | 7.28 | 0.55 | 0.43 | 0.53 | 0.51 |
month1_MGO | 0.63 | 0.65 | 22.21 | 0.53 | 0.82 | 4.71 | 0.83 | 0.46 | 0.85 | 0.72 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.04 | 1.88 | 68.33 | -0.21 | -0.13 | 8.27 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.42 |
month2_MGO | 0.38 | 1.12 | 32.50 | 0.42 | 0.77 | 5.70 | 0.74 | 0.64 | 0.84 | 0.74 |
month2_H&M |
MSLP
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.57 | 0.44 | 20.57 | 0.48 | 0.73 | 4.54 | 0.76 | 0.63 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
week1_MGO | 0.60 | 0.36 | 12.14 | 0.69 | 0.87 | 3.48 | 0.87 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.83 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | 0.06 | 2.03 | 91.64 | -1.34 | 0.06 | 9.57 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.59 |
week2_MGO | -0.02 | 1.27 | 41.55 | -0.06 | 0.37 | 6.45 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.53 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | 0.17 | 1.51 | 112.54 | -0.06 | 0.06 | 10.61 | 0.55 | 0.41 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
week3_MGO | 0.22 | 1.39 | 106.70 | 0.00 | -0.25 | 10.33 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.34 | 0.40 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | -0.19 | 2.49 | 169.65 | -0.28 | -0.41 | 13.02 | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.28 | 0.33 |
week4_MGO | 0.69 | 1.68 | 108.52 | 0.18 | 0.75 | 10.42 | 0.77 | 0.46 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.06 | 1.36 | 33.70 | -0.33 | 0.17 | 5.80 | 0.53 | 0.42 | 0.54 | 0.49 |
month1_MGO | 0.20 | 0.88 | 20.06 | 0.21 | 0.39 | 4.48 | 0.64 | 0.38 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.19 | 1.84 | 42.16 | -0.08 | 0.09 | 6.49 | 0.68 | 0.34 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
month2_MGO | 0.24 | 1.61 | 28.11 | 0.28 | 0.45 | 5.30 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
month2_H&M |
PREC
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.42 | 1.69 | 3.76 | -0.13 | 0.29 | 1.94 | 0.66 | 0.59 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
week1_MGO | 0.37 | 1.75 | 3.00 | 0.10 | 0.35 | 1.73 | 0.75 | 0.52 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | 0.11 | 2.33 | 4.21 | -0.33 | 0.19 | 2.05 | 0.48 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.51 |
week2_MGO | 0.00 | 1.83 | 3.51 | -0.11 | 0.04 | 1.87 | 0.56 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.52 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | 0.08 | 1.66 | 2.73 | -0.38 | 0.02 | 1.65 | 0.45 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.49 |
week3_MGO | -0.19 | 1.59 | 2.32 | -0.17 | 0.05 | 1.52 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.41 | 0.44 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | 0.04 | 2.10 | 2.97 | -0.03 | 0.13 | 1.72 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.53 |
week4_MGO | 0.04 | 2.02 | 2.84 | 0.01 | 0.19 | 1.68 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.15 | 1.42 | 0.80 | -0.04 | 0.32 | 0.89 | 0.57 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.53 |
month1_MGO | 0.07 | 1.28 | 0.68 | 0.12 | 0.38 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.46 | 0.55 | 0.54 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.01 | 1.78 | 0.93 | -0.21 | 0.10 | 0.97 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
month2_MGO | 0.01 | 1.72 | 0.79 | -0.03 | 0.20 | 0.89 | 0.58 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
month2_H&M |