Verification parameters of HMC/MGO forecasts for NORTH ASIA (60 - 190, 40 - 75) issued on 20221110
TRSF
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.49 | 0.52 | 10.11 | 0.27 | 0.30 | 3.18 | 0.51 | 0.66 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
week1_MGO | 0.69 | 0.42 | 7.15 | 0.48 | 0.68 | 2.67 | 0.85 | 0.63 | 0.87 | 0.78 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | 0.22 | 1.04 | 25.07 | -0.74 | -0.23 | 5.01 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.49 |
week2_MGO | 0.39 | 0.98 | 14.06 | 0.02 | 0.36 | 3.75 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | 0.04 | 1.53 | 34.17 | -0.57 | -0.12 | 5.85 | 0.54 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
week3_MGO | 0.47 | 1.03 | 19.37 | 0.11 | 0.45 | 4.40 | 0.73 | 0.57 | 0.78 | 0.69 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | 0.14 | 1.44 | 28.25 | -0.12 | 0.09 | 5.31 | 0.57 | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.58 |
week4_MGO | 0.21 | 1.08 | 20.77 | 0.18 | 0.44 | 4.56 | 0.66 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.29 | 0.99 | 9.91 | -0.77 | -0.07 | 3.15 | 0.56 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.54 |
month1_MGO | 0.60 | 0.53 | 3.58 | 0.36 | 0.56 | 1.89 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.78 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.18 | 1.46 | 14.69 | -0.59 | -0.04 | 3.83 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.58 | 0.53 |
month2_MGO | 0.55 | 0.93 | 6.77 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 2.60 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
month2_H&M |
T850
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.55 | 0.31 | 3.84 | 0.57 | 0.80 | 1.96 | 0.69 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.72 |
week1_MGO | 0.84 | 0.18 | 2.41 | 0.73 | 0.89 | 1.55 | 0.94 | 0.77 | 0.92 | 0.88 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | 0.23 | 1.59 | 25.93 | -1.06 | 0.03 | 5.09 | 0.59 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.56 |
week2_MGO | 0.44 | 0.82 | 10.38 | 0.18 | 0.49 | 3.22 | 0.78 | 0.63 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | 0.03 | 2.28 | 30.16 | -0.17 | 0.03 | 5.49 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 0.51 |
week3_MGO | 0.38 | 1.76 | 22.79 | 0.11 | 0.47 | 4.77 | 0.75 | 0.51 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | -0.27 | 1.99 | 23.59 | -0.31 | -0.39 | 4.86 | 0.35 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.40 |
week4_MGO | -0.24 | 1.68 | 21.11 | -0.18 | -0.16 | 4.59 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.45 | 0.51 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.29 | 1.26 | 5.79 | -0.14 | 0.25 | 2.41 | 0.60 | 0.41 | 0.61 | 0.54 |
month1_MGO | 0.57 | 0.71 | 3.32 | 0.34 | 0.66 | 1.82 | 0.77 | 0.49 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.22 | 1.59 | 8.51 | 0.04 | 0.30 | 2.92 | 0.67 | 0.49 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
month2_MGO | 0.35 | 1.37 | 7.32 | 0.17 | 0.46 | 2.71 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
month2_H&M |
H500
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.53 | 0.21 | 17.56 | 0.66 | 0.82 | 4.19 | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
week1_MGO | 0.83 | 0.10 | 6.75 | 0.87 | 0.94 | 2.60 | 0.98 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.90 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | 0.26 | 1.67 | 132.41 | -0.88 | 0.18 | 11.51 | 0.66 | 0.47 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
week2_MGO | 0.63 | 0.42 | 30.67 | 0.56 | 0.78 | 5.54 | 0.83 | 0.65 | 0.92 | 0.80 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | -0.21 | 2.10 | 231.66 | -0.40 | -0.27 | 15.22 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.35 |
week3_MGO | 0.15 | 1.36 | 126.67 | 0.24 | 0.45 | 11.25 | 0.62 | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.61 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | -0.50 | 2.75 | 242.42 | -0.51 | -0.64 | 15.57 | 0.25 | 0.54 | 0.21 | 0.33 |
week4_MGO | -0.06 | 1.92 | 150.00 | 0.06 | 0.39 | 12.25 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.52 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | -0.07 | 1.60 | 72.86 | -0.47 | -0.11 | 8.54 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
month1_MGO | 0.59 | 0.76 | 27.67 | 0.44 | 0.77 | 5.26 | 0.80 | 0.45 | 0.87 | 0.71 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | -0.07 | 2.02 | 83.81 | -0.24 | -0.10 | 9.15 | 0.50 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.41 |
month2_MGO | 0.30 | 1.40 | 49.57 | 0.27 | 0.57 | 7.04 | 0.68 | 0.51 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
month2_H&M |
MSLP
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.60 | 0.29 | 15.96 | 0.61 | 0.65 | 3.99 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
week1_MGO | 0.60 | 0.24 | 9.00 | 0.78 | 0.87 | 3.00 | 0.85 | 0.74 | 0.91 | 0.83 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | 0.07 | 1.45 | 77.67 | -1.56 | 0.23 | 8.81 | 0.74 | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.63 |
week2_MGO | 0.02 | 0.96 | 27.07 | 0.11 | 0.48 | 5.20 | 0.41 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.52 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | 0.01 | 1.67 | 122.41 | -0.43 | -0.20 | 11.06 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.39 | 0.40 |
week3_MGO | 0.34 | 1.13 | 76.15 | 0.11 | -0.19 | 8.73 | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.39 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | -0.22 | 2.56 | 165.04 | -0.37 | -0.37 | 12.85 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.31 | 0.36 |
week4_MGO | 0.59 | 1.55 | 101.39 | 0.16 | 0.67 | 10.07 | 0.70 | 0.48 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | -0.08 | 1.53 | 39.71 | -1.22 | -0.28 | 6.30 | 0.37 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 0.40 |
month1_MGO | 0.19 | 0.79 | 13.96 | 0.22 | 0.47 | 3.74 | 0.61 | 0.40 | 0.64 | 0.55 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | 0.05 | 1.80 | 42.82 | -0.32 | 0.04 | 6.54 | 0.61 | 0.32 | 0.55 | 0.49 |
month2_MGO | 0.23 | 1.47 | 23.22 | 0.28 | 0.53 | 4.82 | 0.44 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.51 |
month2_H&M |
PREC
|
RO | Q | MSE | MSSS | AC | RMS | ROC_BN | ROC_NO | ROC_AN | ROC_AG |
week1_HMC | 0.43 | 1.64 | 4.20 | -0.15 | 0.23 | 2.05 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
week1_MGO | 0.33 | 1.82 | 3.28 | 0.10 | 0.33 | 1.81 | 0.77 | 0.55 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
week1_H&M |
week2_HMC | 0.06 | 1.48 | 3.48 | -0.32 | 0.25 | 1.86 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.49 |
week2_MGO | -0.06 | 1.39 | 3.15 | -0.19 | -0.03 | 1.77 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.49 |
week2_H&M |
week3_HMC | -0.01 | 1.80 | 3.08 | -0.44 | -0.04 | 1.75 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.45 |
week3_MGO | -0.13 | 1.64 | 2.45 | -0.15 | 0.05 | 1.56 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.43 |
week3_H&M |
week4_HMC | 0.11 | 4.37 | 4.80 | -0.15 | -0.09 | 2.19 | 0.49 | 0.52 | 0.57 | 0.52 |
week4_MGO | 0.00 | 3.95 | 4.42 | -0.06 | 0.02 | 2.10 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.52 |
week4_H&M |
month1_HMC | 0.08 | 1.72 | 1.00 | -0.12 | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
month1_MGO | 0.09 | 1.42 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 0.34 | 0.89 | 0.60 | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0.54 |
month1_H&M |
month2_HMC | -0.03 | 2.39 | 1.31 | -0.35 | -0.03 | 1.14 | 0.44 | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.47 |
month2_MGO | -0.04 | 2.12 | 1.12 | -0.15 | 0.02 | 1.06 | 0.52 | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.48 |
month2_H&M |